Mladost Lucani 2–1 Backa: Result & Stats

Mladost Lucani

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Backa

9/13/2020

Super Liga · Round 7Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mladost Lucani59%

×Draw24%

Backa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LucaniExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.83

Mladost Lucani

1.73

Backa

0.83

Mladost Lucani creates 108% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 38 away

1.34

creates per match

0.50

1.17

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Mladost Lucani

1.34

Backa

0.50

allows per match

Mladost Lucani

1.17

Backa

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw

82%

Mladost Lucani or Backa

76%

Draw or Backa

41%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

33%

Backa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

82%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

52%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

25%

Backa 1+ goals

56%

Backa 2+ goals

20%

Backa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

77%

Backa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Backa attack 0.50 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more

59%

level

24%

Backa scores more

18%

Mladost Lucani at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff