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Backa vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
9/15/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 8Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava (Bačka Palanka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa38%
×Draw27%
Mladost Lucani34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.27
Mladost Lucani
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 147 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

Backa
1.51
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Backa or draw
66%
Backa or Mladost Lucani
73%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
62%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
17%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
72%
Backa 2+ goals
36%
Backa 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
70%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
33%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
53%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Backa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Backa scores more
38%
level
27%
Mladost Lucani scores more
34%

Backa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Backa 0–2 Mladost Lucani

Mladost Lucani beat Backa 2-0 in Super Liga on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava (Bačka Palanka).