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Mladost Lješkopolje vs Lovćen — Second League 2019

Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lovćen
Lovćen
8/16/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mladost Lješkopolje43%
×Draw26%
Lovćen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.41
Lovćen
1.14

Mladost Lješkopolje creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.46
Lovćen
1.15

allows per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.13
Lovćen
1.36

finishing

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lješkopolje ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Lješkopolje or draw
70%
Mladost Lješkopolje or Lovćen
74%
Draw or Lovćen
57%

Winning margin

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
21%
Lovćen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
76%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
41%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
17%
Lovćen 1+ goals
68%
Lovćen 2+ goals
32%
Lovćen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
59%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.46 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
43%
level
26%
Lovćen scores more
30%

Mladost Lješkopolje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Lješkopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Lješkopolje vs Lovćen

Lovćen beat Mladost Lješkopolje 1-0 in Second League on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.