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Lovćen vs Mladost Lješkopolje — Second League 2019

Lovćen
Lovćen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
10/4/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 10Stadion Sveti Petar Cetinjski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Lovćen38%
×Draw26%
Mladost Lješkopolje36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lovćen
1.10
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.20

allows per match

Lovćen
1.39
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.57

finishing

Lovćen+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lovćen ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lovćen or draw
64%
Lovćen or Mladost Lješkopolje
74%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
62%

Winning margin

Lovćen wins by 2+
17%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lovćen 1+ goals
74%
Lovćen 2+ goals
38%
Lovćen 3+ goals
15%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
72%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
37%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lovćen (draw refunded)
51%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lovćen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lovćen attack 1.10 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Lovćen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lovćen scores more
38%
level
26%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
36%

Lovćen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lovćen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lovćen vs Mladost Lješkopolje

Mladost Lješkopolje beat Lovćen 1-0 in Second League on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar Cetinjski in Cetinje.