Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mladost Lješkopolje vs Buducnost Podgorica — First League 2019

Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
4/24/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 31DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mladost Lješkopolje28%
×Draw26%
Buducnost Podgorica46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.10
Buducnost Podgorica
1.50

Buducnost Podgorica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 123 away

creates per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.16
Buducnost Podgorica
1.75

allows per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.24
Buducnost Podgorica
1.05

finishing

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lješkopolje ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Lješkopolje or draw
54%
Mladost Lješkopolje or Buducnost Podgorica
74%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
72%

Winning margin

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
11%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
30%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
10%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
78%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
44%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
37%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.16 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
28%
level
26%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
46%

Buducnost Podgorica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Lješkopolje vs Buducnost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat Mladost Lješkopolje 5-1 in First League on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.