Buducnost Podgorica 4–0 Mladost Lješkopolje

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mladost Lješkopolje

8/30/2023

Cup · Round of 16Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica81%

×Draw12%

Mladost Lješkopolje6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.65

Buducnost Podgorica

2.80

Mladost Lješkopolje

0.65

Buducnost Podgorica creates 331% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.86

creates per match

1.00

0.29

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

2.86

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.00

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.29

Mladost Lješkopolje

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

94%

Buducnost Podgorica or Mladost Lješkopolje

88%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

19%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

61%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

94%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

76%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

52%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

48%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

14%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

93%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.86 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.80

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

81%

level

12%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

6%

Buducnost Podgorica at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff