Mladost Lješkopolje vs Buducnost Podgorica — First League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Mladost Lješkopolje29%
Buducnost Podgorica45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Buducnost Podgorica creates 33% more chances
Season form · 50 home / 124 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mladost Lješkopolje ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches
Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 124 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.16 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10
Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.73 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Buducnost Podgorica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Mladost Lješkopolje substitutes
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mladost Lješkopolje host Buducnost Podgorica on Tuesday, 18 February 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the First League 2019/2020 season.
First League: Mladost Lješkopolje 1–1 Buducnost Podgorica
Mladost Lješkopolje and Buducnost Podgorica drew 1-1 in First League on February 18, 2020.
Goals: P. Moraitis (76'), D. Đajić (84').
The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.