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Mladost Lješkopolje vs Berane — Second League 2019

Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Berane
Berane
N. Draskovic 90', 60'
B. Dujovic 33'
L. Djordjevic 44'
5/24/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Mladost Lješkopolje47%
×Draw26%
Berane27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.46
Berane
1.05

Mladost Lješkopolje creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.46
Berane
0.98

allows per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.13
Berane
1.47

finishing

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par
Berane+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lješkopolje ↓

Berane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Lješkopolje or draw
73%
Mladost Lješkopolje or Berane
74%
Draw or Berane
53%

Winning margin

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
23%
Berane wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
43%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
18%
Berane 1+ goals
65%
Berane 2+ goals
28%
Berane 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
63%
Berane (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Berane away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.46 + Berane defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Berane attack 0.98 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
47%
level
26%
Berane scores more
27%

Mladost Lješkopolje at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mladost Lješkopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
B. Dujovic
44'
L. Djordjevic
60'
N. Draskovic
90'
N. Draskovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Mladost Lješkopolje 3–1 Berane

Mladost Lješkopolje beat Berane 3-1 in Second League on May 24, 2026.

Goals: B. Dujovic (33'), L. Djordjevic (44'), N. Draskovic (60', 90').