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Berane vs Mladost Lješkopolje — Second League 2019

Berane
Berane
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
5/25/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 36Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Berane41%
×Draw26%
Mladost Lješkopolje32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berane
1.38
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.19

Berane creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 69 away

creates per match

Berane
1.19
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.20

allows per match

Berane
1.17
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.57

finishing

Berane+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berane ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Berane or draw
68%
Berane or Mladost Lješkopolje
74%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
59%

Winning margin

Berane wins by 2+
19%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Berane 1+ goals
75%
Berane 2+ goals
40%
Berane 3+ goals
16%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
70%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
33%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Berane (draw refunded)
56%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berane attack 1.19 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Berane defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Berane scores more
41%
level
26%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
32%

Berane at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Berane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berane vs Mladost Lješkopolje

Mladost Lješkopolje beat Berane 4-1 in Second League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Berane.