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Mladosť Kalša vs Družstevník Plavnica — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
2 – 1
Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
9/12/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 8Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mladosť Kalša57%
×Draw19%
Družstevník Plavnica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
2.41
Družstevník Plavnica
1.52

Mladosť Kalša creates 59% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Družstevník Plavnica
1.17

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Družstevník Plavnica
2.33

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
76%
Mladosť Kalša or Družstevník Plavnica
81%
Draw or Družstevník Plavnica
43%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
36%
Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
91%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
69%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
43%
Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
78%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
45%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
71%
Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.41

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
57%
level
19%
Družstevník Plavnica scores more
24%

Mladosť Kalša at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Mladosť Kalša 2–1 Družstevník Plavnica

Mladosť Kalša beat Družstevník Plavnica 2-1 in 3. liga - East on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.