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Družstevník Plavnica vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
CANC
14:30
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
5/2/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica58%
×Draw19%
Mladosť Kalša22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Družstevník Plavnica
2.37
Mladosť Kalša
1.41

Družstevník Plavnica creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.88
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica
1.00
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw
78%
Družstevník Plavnica or Mladosť Kalša
81%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
42%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
37%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
91%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
68%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
42%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
76%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
41%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
73%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.37

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more
58%
level
19%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
22%

Družstevník Plavnica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Družstevník Plavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Družstevník Plavnica face Mladosť Kalša (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Družstevník Plavnica hosting Mladosť Kalša. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.