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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Krupa na Vrbasu — Premijer Liga 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
3/13/2021Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 22MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj44%
×Draw28%
Krupa na Vrbasu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.32
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.99

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.00
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.47

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.52
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.65

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
72%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Krupa na Vrbasu
72%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
56%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
20%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
73%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
38%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
15%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
63%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
26%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
61%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.47 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
44%
level
28%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
28%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1–0 Krupa na Vrbasu

Mladost Doboj Kakanj beat Krupa na Vrbasu 1-0 in Premijer Liga on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.