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Krupa na Vrbasu vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Premijer Liga 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
10/17/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 11Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu50%
×Draw26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
1.48
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.92

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
1.13
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.71

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
1.13
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.82

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
77%
Krupa na Vrbasu or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
74%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
50%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
25%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
77%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
43%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
60%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
23%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
68%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.13 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
50%
level
26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
23%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Krupa na Vrbasu 0–1 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Mladost Doboj Kakanj beat Krupa na Vrbasu 1-0 in Premijer Liga on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.