Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0–1 Gornji Rahić

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

0 – 1

Gornji Rahić

3/16/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj51%

×Draw22%

Gornji Rahić27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchGornji Rahić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.36

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.96

Gornji Rahić

1.36

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

1.44

creates per match

1.21

1.51

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.44

Gornji Rahić

1.21

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.51

Gornji Rahić

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Gornji Rahić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

73%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Gornji Rahić

78%

Draw or Gornji Rahić

49%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

29%

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

86%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

58%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

31%

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

74%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

39%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

66%

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.96

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

51%

level

22%

Gornji Rahić scores more

27%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff