Gornji Rahić 1–0 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Gornji Rahić

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

8/20/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić66%

×Draw20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornji RahićExpected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.79

Gornji Rahić

2.02

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.79

Gornji Rahić creates 156% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

1.83

creates per match

0.73

0.86

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Gornji Rahić

1.83

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.73

allows per match

Gornji Rahić

0.86

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw

86%

Gornji Rahić or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

80%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

34%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+

41%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals

87%

Gornji Rahić 2+ goals

60%

Gornji Rahić 3+ goals

33%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

55%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

19%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)

83%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.02

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more

66%

level

20%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

14%

Gornji Rahić at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff