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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Goražde
Goražde
3/25/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj41%
×Draw26%
Goražde33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.39
Goražde
1.21

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.44
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.51
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
67%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Goražde
74%
Draw or Goražde
59%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
19%
Goražde wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
75%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
40%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
16%
Goražde 1+ goals
70%
Goražde 2+ goals
34%
Goražde 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
56%
Goražde (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Goražde attack 0.91 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
41%
level
26%
Goražde scores more
33%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Goražde

Goražde beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.