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Goražde vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
3/9/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Goražde63%
×Draw21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
1.94
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.83

Goražde creates 134% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
85%
Goražde or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
79%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
37%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
38%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
86%
Goražde 2+ goals
58%
Goražde 3+ goals
30%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
56%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
20%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
80%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Goražde scores more
63%
level
21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
15%

Goražde at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Goražde 1–2 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Mladost Doboj Kakanj beat Goražde 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.