Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2–1 Bratstvo Gračanica

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

2 – 1

Bratstvo Gračanica

5/8/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 25MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj41%

×Draw26%

Bratstvo Gračanica33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchBratstvo Gračanica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.42

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.23

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 96 away

1.44

creates per match

0.94

1.51

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.44

Bratstvo Gračanica

0.94

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.51

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

67%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Bratstvo Gračanica

74%

Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica

59%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

20%

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

76%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

41%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

17%

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

71%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

35%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

56%

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.94 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

41%

level

26%

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

33%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff