Bratstvo Gračanica 0–0 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Bratstvo Gračanica

FT

0 – 0

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

10/29/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica62%

×Draw21%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo GračanicaExpected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.95

Bratstvo Gračanica

2.00

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.95

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 111% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

0.73

1.18

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.81

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.73

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.18

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw

83%

Bratstvo Gračanica or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

79%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

38%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

37%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

86%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

59%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

32%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

78%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

62%

level

21%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

17%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff