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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
10/25/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 12MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj26%
×Draw27%
Borac Banja Luka47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.99
Borac Banja Luka
1.41

Borac Banja Luka creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.00
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.52
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
53%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Borac Banja Luka
73%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
74%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
10%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
63%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
8%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
76%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
41%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
36%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
26%
level
27%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
47%

Borac Banja Luka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0–2 Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2-0 in Premijer Liga on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.