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Borac Banja Luka vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Premijer Liga 2019

Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
8/1/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Borac Banja Luka67%
×Draw21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Banja Luka
1.92
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.67

Borac Banja Luka creates 187% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 28 away

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka
2.02
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.71

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka
0.63
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.82

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw
88%
Borac Banja Luka or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
79%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
33%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
41%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
85%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
57%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
30%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
49%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
15%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
85%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more
67%
level
21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
12%

Borac Banja Luka at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Banja Luka vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Borac Banja Luka beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 6-0 in Premijer Liga on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.