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Mladost DG vs Cetinje — Second League 2019

Mladost DG
Mladost DG
FT
1 – 0
Cetinje
Cetinje
8/22/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mladost DG67%
×Draw20%
Cetinje12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost DG
1.98
Cetinje
0.70

Mladost DG creates 183% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mladost DG
1.53
Cetinje
0.56

allows per match

Mladost DG
0.84
Cetinje
2.44

finishing

Mladost DG+0.00on par
Cetinje+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost DG ↓

Cetinje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mladost DG or draw
88%
Mladost DG or Cetinje
80%
Draw or Cetinje
33%

Winning margin

Mladost DG wins by 2+
42%
Cetinje wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mladost DG 1+ goals
86%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
59%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
31%
Cetinje 1+ goals
50%
Cetinje 2+ goals
16%
Cetinje 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mladost DG (draw refunded)
85%
Cetinje (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost DG at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

Cetinje away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost DG attack 1.53 + Cetinje defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Cetinje attack 0.56 + Mladost DG defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mladost DG scores more
67%
level
20%
Cetinje scores more
12%

Mladost DG at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mladost DG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost DG vs Cetinje

Mladost DG beat Cetinje 1-0 in Second League on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.