Cetinje 1–2 Mladost DG: Result & Stats

Cetinje

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mladost DG

4/17/2022

Second League · Round 29Stadion Braća Velašević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cetinje20%

×Draw23%

Mladost DG56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CetinjeExpected goals in this matchMladost DG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.77

Cetinje

0.96

Mladost DG

1.77

Mladost DG creates 84% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

0.89

creates per match

1.37

2.17

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Cetinje

0.89

Mladost DG

1.37

allows per match

Cetinje

2.17

Mladost DG

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cetinje+0.00on par

Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cetinje ↓

Mladost DG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cetinje or draw

44%

Cetinje or Mladost DG

77%

Draw or Mladost DG

80%

Winning margin

Cetinje wins by 2+

7%

Mladost DG wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Cetinje 1+ goals

62%

Cetinje 2+ goals

25%

Cetinje 3+ goals

7%

Mladost DG 1+ goals

83%

Mladost DG 2+ goals

53%

Mladost DG 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cetinje (draw refunded)

27%

Mladost DG (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cetinje at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cetinje attack 0.89 + Mladost DG defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mladost DG attack 1.37 + Cetinje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cetinje scores more

20%

level

23%

Mladost DG scores more

56%

Mladost DG at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mladost DG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff