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Mladi Radnik vs Budučnost Krušik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
3/25/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 18Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Mladi Radnik48%
×Draw27%
Budučnost Krušik25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
1.38
Budučnost Krušik
0.92

Mladi Radnik creates 50% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.38
Budučnost Krušik
0.91

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.92
Budučnost Krušik
1.37

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

Budučnost Krušik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
75%
Mladi Radnik or Budučnost Krušik
73%
Draw or Budučnost Krušik
52%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
23%
Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
75%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
40%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
16%
Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
60%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
23%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
65%
Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 86 matches

Budučnost Krušik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.38 + Budučnost Krušik defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Budučnost Krušik attack 0.91 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
48%
level
27%
Budučnost Krušik scores more
25%

Mladi Radnik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 4–0 Budučnost Krušik

Mladi Radnik beat Budučnost Krušik 4-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.