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Budučnost Krušik vs Mladi Radnik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
9/7/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 4Park Pećina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Budučnost Krušik56%
×Draw26%
Mladi Radnik18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budučnost Krušik
1.55
Mladi Radnik
0.76

Budučnost Krušik creates 104% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 87 away

creates per match

Budučnost Krušik
1.47
Mladi Radnik
0.76

allows per match

Budučnost Krušik
0.76
Mladi Radnik
1.64

finishing

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par
Mladi Radnik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budučnost Krušik ↓

Mladi Radnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Budučnost Krušik or draw
82%
Budučnost Krušik or Mladi Radnik
74%
Draw or Mladi Radnik
44%

Winning margin

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
30%
Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
79%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
46%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
20%
Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
53%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
18%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
75%
Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budučnost Krušik at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Mladi Radnik away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.64 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budučnost Krušik attack 1.47 + Mladi Radnik defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Mladi Radnik attack 0.76 + Budučnost Krušik defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Budučnost Krušik scores more
56%
level
26%
Mladi Radnik scores more
18%

Budučnost Krušik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Budučnost Krušik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Budučnost Krušik 0–0 Mladi Radnik

Budučnost Krušik and Mladi Radnik drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Park Pećina in Valjevo.