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Mladenovac vs BSK Batajnica — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Mladenovac
Mladenovac
FT
1 – 1
BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
3/13/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 21Stadion Selters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladenovac58%
×Draw24%
BSK Batajnica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladenovac
1.68
BSK Batajnica
0.82

Mladenovac creates 105% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mladenovac
0.78
BSK Batajnica
0.53

allows per match

Mladenovac
1.11
BSK Batajnica
2.58

finishing

Mladenovac+0.00on par
BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladenovac ↓

BSK Batajnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladenovac or draw
82%
Mladenovac or BSK Batajnica
76%
Draw or BSK Batajnica
42%

Winning margin

Mladenovac wins by 2+
32%
BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mladenovac 1+ goals
81%
Mladenovac 2+ goals
50%
Mladenovac 3+ goals
24%
BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
56%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
20%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladenovac (draw refunded)
76%
BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladenovac at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladenovac attack 0.78 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + Mladenovac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mladenovac scores more
58%
level
24%
BSK Batajnica scores more
18%

Mladenovac at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mladenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladenovac vs BSK Batajnica

Mladenovac and BSK Batajnica drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Selters in Mladenovac.