BSK Batajnica 1–0 Mladenovac: Result & Stats

BSK Batajnica

FT

1 – 0

Mladenovac

8/23/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 2Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica34%

×Draw32%

Mladenovac35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK BatajnicaExpected goals in this matchMladenovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.97

BSK Batajnica

0.96

Mladenovac

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

0.47

creates per match

0.57

1.37

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

BSK Batajnica

0.47

Mladenovac

0.57

allows per match

BSK Batajnica

1.37

Mladenovac

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Mladenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Mladenovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw

65%

BSK Batajnica or Mladenovac

68%

Draw or Mladenovac

66%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

12%

Mladenovac wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

62%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

25%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

7%

Mladenovac 1+ goals

62%

Mladenovac 2+ goals

25%

Mladenovac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

50%

Mladenovac (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Mladenovac away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Mladenovac defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mladenovac attack 0.57 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more

34%

level

32%

Mladenovac scores more

35%

Mladenovac at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mladenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff