Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Mlada Boleslav

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Baník Ostrava

9/21/2025

Czech Liga · Round 9Lokotrans Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav55%

×Draw23%

Baník Ostrava22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mlada BoleslavExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.10

Mlada Boleslav

1.88

Baník Ostrava

1.10

Mlada Boleslav creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.84

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.84

Baník Ostrava

1.04

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.16

Baník Ostrava

1.91

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less

Baník Ostrava-0.04on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw

78%

Mlada Boleslav or Baník Ostrava

77%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

45%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

32%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

85%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

56%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

29%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

67%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

30%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

72%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more

55%

level

23%

Baník Ostrava scores more

22%

Mlada Boleslav at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff