Baník Ostrava 2–1 Mlada Boleslav: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Mlada Boleslav

3/9/2025

Czech Liga · Round 25Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Baník Ostrava48%

×Draw24%

Mlada Boleslav27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchMlada Boleslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.19

Baník Ostrava

1.66

Mlada Boleslav

1.19

Baník Ostrava creates 39% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.23

1.14

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

1.69

Mlada Boleslav

1.23

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.14

Mlada Boleslav

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Mlada Boleslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

73%

Baník Ostrava or Mlada Boleslav

76%

Draw or Mlada Boleslav

52%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

25%

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

81%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

49%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

23%

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

70%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

33%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

64%

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.14 · 122 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 1.69 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

48%

level

24%

Mlada Boleslav scores more

27%

Baník Ostrava at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff