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Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Jablonec U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
P. Marek 74'
L. Kostka 90+3'
R. Senft 80'
F. Bakrlik 60', 45'
M. Simek 29'
11/2/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1955%
×Draw21%
Jablonec U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav U19
2.12
Jablonec U19
1.34

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.97
Jablonec U19
1.20

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.49
Jablonec U19
2.27

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par
Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw
76%
Mladá Boleslav U19 or Jablonec U19
79%
Draw or Jablonec U19
45%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
33%
Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
88%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
62%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
35%
Jablonec U19 1+ goals
74%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
39%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.12

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
55%
level
21%
Jablonec U19 scores more
24%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Bakrlik
22'
S. Novotny
29'
M. Simek
39'
M. Simek
45'
F. Bakrlik
59'
M. Kodera← M. Kodera
60'
F. Bakrlik
65'
R. Senft← R. Senft
66'
T. Kocour← T. Kocour
66'
D. Matejovsky← D. Matejovsky
74'
P. Marek
78'
D. Springl
80'
R. Senft
86'
Y. Marchenko← Y. Marchenko
89'
D. Springl
89'
D. Springl
90+3'
L. Kostka
90+4'
M. Holy← M. Holy
90+4'
←

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Mladá Boleslav U19 1–5 Jablonec U19

Jablonec U19 beat Mladá Boleslav U19 5-1 in 1. Liga U19 on November 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Simek (29'), F. Bakrlik (45', 60'), P. Marek (74'), R. Senft (80'), L. Kostka (90+3').

The match was played at UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka in Mladá Boleslav.