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Jablonec U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jablonec U19
Jablonec U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
P. Marek 82' (OG)
P. Kucera 70'
A. Busek 65'
D. Matejovsky 8'
M. Cepela 2'
5/31/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 28Základní škola Mozartova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jablonec U1927%
×Draw21%
Mladá Boleslav U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jablonec U19
1.46
Mladá Boleslav U19
2.08

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jablonec U19
0.87
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.48

allows per match

Jablonec U19
2.67
Mladá Boleslav U19
2.04

finishing

Jablonec U19+0.00on par
Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec U19 ↓

Mladá Boleslav U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jablonec U19 or draw
48%
Jablonec U19 or Mladá Boleslav U19
79%
Draw or Mladá Boleslav U19
73%

Winning margin

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+
12%
Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Jablonec U19 1+ goals
77%
Jablonec U19 2+ goals
43%
Jablonec U19 3+ goals
18%
Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
87%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
61%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)
34%
Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec U19 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Mladá Boleslav U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.04 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec U19 attack 0.87 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.48 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jablonec U19 scores more
27%
level
21%
Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
52%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Cepela
8'
D. Matejovsky
20'
A. Bejda← A. Bejda
54'
J. Matousek← J. Matousek
60'
Y. D. Jaji
60'
P. Kucera← P. Kucera
60'
K. Hudak← K. Hudak
65'
A. Busek
67'
A. Novotny
70'
P. Kucera
70'
V. Pancev← V. Pancev
70'
A. Job← A. Job
70'
L. Sirucek← L. Sirucek
70'
F. Cerny← F. Cerny
70'
D. Holzer← D. Holzer
82'
P. MarekOwn goal
87'
J. Ulrich← J. Ulrich
90+1'
J. Ulrich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jablonec U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 beat Jablonec U19 3-2 in 1. Liga U19 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: M. Cepela (2'), D. Matejovsky (8'), A. Busek (65'), P. Kucera (70'), P. Marek (82' o.g.).

The match was played at Základní škola Mozartova in Jablonec nad Nisou.