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ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino — Premier League 2018

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Zhodino
Torpedo Zhodino
8/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Vitebsk CSK
Big match
47%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
47%26%26%

Torpedo Zhodino score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ML Vitebsk47%
×Draw26%
Torpedo Zhodino26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.02

ML Vitebsk creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 124 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
1.91
Torpedo Zhodino
1.26

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
0.77
Torpedo Zhodino
1.03

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Torpedo Zhodino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
74%
ML Vitebsk or Torpedo Zhodino
74%
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
53%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
24%
Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
77%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
43%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
18%
Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals
27%
Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
64%
Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Torpedo Zhodino away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 1.91 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.47

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.26 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
47%
level
26%
Torpedo Zhodino scores more
26%

ML Vitebsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 32% of Torpedo Zhodino’s matches
  • 29% of Torpedo Zhodino’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vitebsk
LLWWD
Zhodino
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ML Vitebsk face Torpedo Zhodino (Premier League)

Premier League returns with ML Vitebsk hosting Torpedo Zhodino. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

ML Vitebsk host Torpedo Zhodino at Vitebsk CSK.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.