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Mjölby vs Haninge — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Mjölby
Mjölby
FT
1 – 2
Haninge
Haninge
9/10/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 20Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mjölby36%
×Draw21%
Haninge43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjölby
1.84
Haninge
2.02

Haninge creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mjölby
2.02
Haninge
2.09

allows per match

Mjölby
1.95
Haninge
1.66

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par
Haninge+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

Haninge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw
57%
Mjölby or Haninge
79%
Draw or Haninge
64%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+
19%
Haninge wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals
84%
Mjölby 2+ goals
55%
Mjölby 3+ goals
28%
Haninge 1+ goals
87%
Haninge 2+ goals
60%
Haninge 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)
46%
Haninge (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

Haninge away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.66 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 2.02 + Haninge defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.84

Haninge attack 2.09 + Mjölby defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mjölby scores more
36%
level
21%
Haninge scores more
43%

Haninge at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Mjölby 1–2 Haninge

Haninge beat Mjölby 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Vifolkavallen in Mjölby.