Haninge 3–0 Mjölby: Result & Stats

Haninge

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mjölby

5/14/2023

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 7Torvalla IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Haninge69%

×Draw17%

Mjölby15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaningeExpected goals in this matchMjölby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.20

Haninge

2.71

Mjölby

1.20

Haninge creates 126% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 40 away

2.89

creates per match

1.23

1.17

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Haninge

2.89

Mjölby

1.23

allows per match

Haninge

1.17

Mjölby

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haninge+0.00on par

Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haninge ↓

Mjölby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Haninge or draw

85%

Haninge or Mjölby

83%

Draw or Mjölby

31%

Winning margin

Haninge wins by 2+

48%

Mjölby wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Haninge 1+ goals

93%

Haninge 2+ goals

75%

Haninge 3+ goals

50%

Mjölby 1+ goals

70%

Mjölby 2+ goals

34%

Mjölby 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Haninge (draw refunded)

82%

Mjölby (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haninge at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.17 · 47 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haninge attack 2.89 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.71

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Haninge defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Haninge scores more

69%

level

17%

Mjölby scores more

15%

Haninge at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff