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Mjölby vs Enskede — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Mjölby
Mjölby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Enskede
Enskede
8/17/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 17Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mjölby46%
×Draw21%
Enskede33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjölby
2.06
Enskede
1.71

Mjölby creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 52 away

creates per match

Mjölby
2.02
Enskede
1.46

allows per match

Mjölby
1.95
Enskede
2.10

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par
Enskede+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

Enskede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw
67%
Mjölby or Enskede
79%
Draw or Enskede
54%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+
26%
Enskede wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals
87%
Mjölby 2+ goals
61%
Mjölby 3+ goals
34%
Enskede 1+ goals
82%
Enskede 2+ goals
51%
Enskede 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)
59%
Enskede (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

Enskede away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 2.02 + Enskede defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.06

Enskede attack 1.46 + Mjölby defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mjölby scores more
46%
level
21%
Enskede scores more
33%

Mjölby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mjölby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjölby vs Enskede

Enskede beat Mjölby 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Vifolkavallen in Mjölby.