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Enskede vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Enskede
Enskede
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mjölby
Mjölby
4/21/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 4Enskede IP 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Enskede59%
×Draw20%
Mjölby21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enskede
2.17
Mjölby
1.23

Enskede creates 76% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 40 away

creates per match

Enskede
1.83
Mjölby
1.23

allows per match

Enskede
1.23
Mjölby
2.52

finishing

Enskede+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enskede ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Enskede or draw
79%
Enskede or Mjölby
80%
Draw or Mjölby
41%

Winning margin

Enskede wins by 2+
36%
Mjölby wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Enskede 1+ goals
89%
Enskede 2+ goals
64%
Enskede 3+ goals
36%
Mjölby 1+ goals
71%
Mjölby 2+ goals
35%
Mjölby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Enskede (draw refunded)
74%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enskede at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enskede attack 1.83 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.17

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Enskede defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Enskede scores more
59%
level
20%
Mjölby scores more
21%

Enskede at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Enskede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enskede vs Mjölby

Mjölby beat Enskede 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Enskede IP 2 in Stockholm.