Mjölby 1–3 Assyriska FF: Result & Stats

Mjölby

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Assyriska FF

8/12/2023

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 16Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mjölby31%

×Draw21%

Assyriska FF48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjölbyExpected goals in this matchAssyriska FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.04

Mjölby

1.60

Assyriska FF

2.04

Assyriska FF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 45 away

2.02

creates per match

2.13

1.95

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Mjölby

2.02

Assyriska FF

2.13

allows per match

Mjölby

1.95

Assyriska FF

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par

Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

Assyriska FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw

52%

Mjölby or Assyriska FF

79%

Draw or Assyriska FF

69%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+

15%

Assyriska FF wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals

80%

Mjölby 2+ goals

47%

Mjölby 3+ goals

22%

Assyriska FF 1+ goals

87%

Assyriska FF 2+ goals

60%

Assyriska FF 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)

39%

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 2.02 + Assyriska FF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

Assyriska FF attack 2.13 + Mjölby defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mjölby scores more

31%

level

21%

Assyriska FF scores more

48%

Assyriska FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff