Assyriska FF 4–0 Mjölby: Result & Stats

Assyriska FF

FT

4 – 0

Mjölby

4/15/2023

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 3Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Assyriska FF68%

×Draw17%

Mjölby15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Assyriska FFExpected goals in this matchMjölby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.08

Assyriska FF

2.52

Mjölby

1.08

Assyriska FF creates 133% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 40 away

2.52

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Assyriska FF

2.52

Mjölby

1.23

allows per match

Assyriska FF

0.93

Mjölby

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

Mjölby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw

85%

Assyriska FF or Mjölby

83%

Draw or Mjölby

32%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+

46%

Mjölby wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals

92%

Assyriska FF 2+ goals

71%

Assyriska FF 3+ goals

45%

Mjölby 1+ goals

66%

Mjölby 2+ goals

29%

Mjölby 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)

82%

Mjölby (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 2.52 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.52

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Assyriska FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Assyriska FF scores more

68%

level

17%

Mjölby scores more

15%

Assyriska FF at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff