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Mjallby AIF vs Landskrona BoIS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
2/16/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Strandvallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mjallby AIF53%
×Draw23%
Landskrona BoIS24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.84
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

Mjallby AIF creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
2.00
Landskrona BoIS
1.50

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.81
Landskrona BoIS
1.69

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
76%
Mjallby AIF or Landskrona BoIS
77%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
47%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
30%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
84%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
55%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
28%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
69%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
32%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
69%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.50 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
53%
level
23%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
24%

Mjallby AIF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Landskrona BoIS

Mjallby AIF beat Landskrona BoIS 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Strandvallen Konstgräs in Sölvesborg.