Landskrona BoIS 0–3 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Mjallby AIF

2/27/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Landskrona IP F-plan konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Landskrona BoIS13%

×Draw18%

Mjallby AIF69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.40

Landskrona BoIS

0.94

Mjallby AIF

2.40

Mjallby AIF creates 155% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

2.79

2.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.38

Mjallby AIF

2.79

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

2.00

Mjallby AIF

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

31%

Landskrona BoIS or Mjallby AIF

82%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

87%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

4%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

61%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

24%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

7%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

91%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

69%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

16%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.38 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Landskrona BoIS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

13%

level

18%

Mjallby AIF scores more

69%

Mjallby AIF at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff