Mjallby AIF 2–0 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kalmar FF

2/21/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mjallby AIF43%

×Draw24%

Kalmar FF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.37

Mjallby AIF

1.60

Kalmar FF

1.37

Mjallby AIF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.93

0.81

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

2.00

Kalmar FF

1.93

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

0.81

Kalmar FF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

67%

Mjallby AIF or Kalmar FF

76%

Draw or Kalmar FF

57%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

22%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

80%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

47%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

22%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

75%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

40%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

57%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

43%

level

24%

Kalmar FF scores more

33%

Mjallby AIF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff