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Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
4/29/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 6Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mjallby AIF44%
×Draw25%
Kalmar FF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.54
Kalmar FF
1.24

Mjallby AIF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.59
Kalmar FF
1.28

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.20
Kalmar FF
1.50

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.34scores less
Kalmar FF-0.08on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
69%
Mjallby AIF or Kalmar FF
75%
Draw or Kalmar FF
56%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
22%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
79%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
45%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
20%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
71%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
35%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
59%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.59 + Kalmar FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kalmar FF attack 1.28 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
44%
level
25%
Kalmar FF scores more
31%

Mjallby AIF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Mjallby AIF 3–2 Kalmar FF

Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.