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Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
5/25/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 11Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mjallby AIF49%
×Draw26%
Djurgardens IF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.54
Djurgardens IF
1.05

Mjallby AIF creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.59
Djurgardens IF
0.91

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.20
Djurgardens IF
1.48

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.34scores less
Djurgardens IF+0.23scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
74%
Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF
74%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
51%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
25%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
79%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
45%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
20%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
65%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
28%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
65%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.59 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
49%
level
26%
Djurgardens IF scores more
26%

Mjallby AIF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.