Djurgardens IF 1–1 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mjallby AIF

9/15/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 22Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Djurgardens IF51%

×Draw24%

Mjallby AIF25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.14

Djurgardens IF

1.73

Mjallby AIF

1.14

Djurgardens IF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

1.26

1.02

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.75

Mjallby AIF

1.26

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

1.02

Mjallby AIF

1.71

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

Djurgardens IF-0.25scores less

Mjallby AIF+0.74scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

75%

Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF

76%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

49%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

28%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

82%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

52%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

25%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

68%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

32%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

67%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.75 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

51%

level

24%

Mjallby AIF scores more

25%

Djurgardens IF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff