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Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
4/16/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 3Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mjallby AIF50%
×Draw24%
Degerfors IF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.74
Degerfors IF
1.21

Mjallby AIF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.59
Degerfors IF
1.22

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.20
Degerfors IF
1.89

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.34scores less
Degerfors IF-0.22scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
73%
Mjallby AIF or Degerfors IF
76%
Draw or Degerfors IF
50%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
27%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
82%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
52%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
25%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
70%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
34%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
65%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.59 + Degerfors IF defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.74

Degerfors IF attack 1.22 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
50%
level
24%
Degerfors IF scores more
27%

Mjallby AIF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Mjallby AIF 2–0 Degerfors IF

Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 2-0 in Allsvenskan on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.