Degerfors IF 1–2 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mjallby AIF

11/12/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 30Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Degerfors IF40%

×Draw26%

Mjallby AIF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Degerfors IF

1.40

Mjallby AIF

1.27

Degerfors IF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.09

creates per match

1.26

1.27

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Degerfors IF

1.09

Mjallby AIF

1.26

allows per match

Degerfors IF

1.27

Mjallby AIF

1.71

-0.69scores less than expected

finishing

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.69scores less

Mjallby AIF+0.74scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

66%

Degerfors IF or Mjallby AIF

74%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

60%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

19%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

75%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

41%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

17%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

72%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

36%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

54%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.09 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 + Degerfors IF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

40%

level

26%

Mjallby AIF scores more

34%

Degerfors IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff