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Mjallby AIF vs Dalkurd FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
2/19/2023Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Strandvallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mjallby AIF58%
×Draw21%
Dalkurd FF21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
2.11
Dalkurd FF
1.19

Mjallby AIF creates 77% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
2.00
Dalkurd FF
1.56

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.81
Dalkurd FF
2.22

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
79%
Mjallby AIF or Dalkurd FF
79%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
42%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
35%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
88%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
62%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
35%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
70%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
33%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
74%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dalkurd FF attack 1.56 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
58%
level
21%
Dalkurd FF scores more
21%

Mjallby AIF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Mjallby AIF 1–0 Dalkurd FF

Mjallby AIF beat Dalkurd FF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Strandvallen Konstgräs in Sölvesborg.