Mjallby AIF 3–2 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

C. Georges 90+4'

J. Löfgren 90+2'

B. Jobe 89'

K. Cissoko 71'

Ahmed Awad 62'

8/25/2019

Superettan · Round 21Strandvallen (Sölvesborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mjallby AIF53%

×Draw25%

Dalkurd FF22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.96

Mjallby AIF

1.64

Dalkurd FF

0.96

Mjallby AIF creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

1.60

creates per match

0.98

0.93

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

1.60

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

0.93

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

78%

Mjallby AIF or Dalkurd FF

75%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

47%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

29%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

81%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

49%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

23%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

62%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

25%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

71%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.60 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

53%

level

25%

Dalkurd FF scores more

22%

Mjallby AIF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

32'

59'

62'

63'

63'

C. Georges← J. Nilsson

65'

K. Cissoko← R. Tranberg

71'

K. Cissoko

74'

J. Ceesay

77'

M. Halvadzic← J. Bergström

85'

S. Alexandersson← F. Arhin

89'

B. Jobe

90'

E. Parsson

90'

P. Azizi

90+2'

J. Löfgren

90+4'

C. Georges

Mjallby

Dalkurd

1

16

33

14

7

6

▼

25

24

11

10

⚽

Awad

80

▼

Arhin

13

Eriksson

6

⚽

4

2

5

12

29

▼

Omoh

7

Gustafsso

9

▼

Nilsson

8

⚽

Jobe

16

▼

Bergström

Manager: M. Milojevic

63'▲E. Pärsson←▼M. Omoh

63'▲C. Georges←▼J. Nilsson

77'▲M. Halvadzic←▼J. Bergström

Mjallby AIF substitutes

32Pärsson17Georges10Halvadzic11Kvist21Konstandeliasz26Mbye1Irgolić

Manager: P. Olausson

65'▲K. Cissoko←▼R. Tranberg

85'▲S. Alexandersson←▼F. Arhin

Dalkurd FF substitutes

99Cissoko9Alexandersson8Berger21Azizi22Styffe30Anger