Mjøndalen II 0–2 Mandalskameratene: Result & Stats

Mjøndalen II

FT

0 – 2

Mandalskameratene

4/15/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 2Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjøndalen II39%

×Draw20%

Mandalskameratene41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjøndalen IIExpected goals in this matchMandalskameratene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

2.23

Mjøndalen II

2.16

Mandalskameratene

2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

2.23

creates per match

2.09

2.38

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Mjøndalen II

2.23

Mandalskameratene

2.09

allows per match

Mjøndalen II

2.38

Mandalskameratene

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjøndalen II ↓

Mandalskameratene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Mjøndalen II or draw

59%

Mjøndalen II or Mandalskameratene

80%

Draw or Mandalskameratene

61%

Winning margin

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

22%

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

88%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

63%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

36%

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

89%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

65%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

48%

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjøndalen II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.09 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjøndalen II attack 2.23 + Mandalskameratene defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mandalskameratene attack 2.09 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mjøndalen II scores more

39%

level

20%

Mandalskameratene scores more

41%

Mandalskameratene at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mandalskameratene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff