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Mandalskameratene vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Mandalskameratene
Mandalskameratene
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
10/8/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23Idrettsparken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mandalskameratene64%
×Draw18%
Mjøndalen II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mandalskameratene
2.45
Mjøndalen II
1.23

Mandalskameratene creates 99% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mandalskameratene
2.13
Mjøndalen II
1.08

allows per match

Mandalskameratene
1.38
Mjøndalen II
2.77

finishing

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mandalskameratene ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mandalskameratene or draw
82%
Mandalskameratene or Mjøndalen II
82%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
36%

Winning margin

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+
42%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals
91%
Mandalskameratene 2+ goals
70%
Mandalskameratene 3+ goals
44%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
71%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
35%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)
78%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mandalskameratene at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mandalskameratene attack 2.13 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.45

Mjøndalen II attack 1.08 + Mandalskameratene defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mandalskameratene scores more
64%
level
18%
Mjøndalen II scores more
18%

Mandalskameratene at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mandalskameratene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Mandalskameratene 1–2 Mjøndalen II

Mjøndalen II beat Mandalskameratene 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Idrettsparken Stadion in Mandal.